The monthly Pace Navigator gives you the Knowland Advantage! Through its TAP solutions, Knowland aggregates, analyzes, and reports on past and future event booking data as reported by participating CVBs, to deliver actionable trending insights needed to make better strategic decisions.
At the end of the first quarter, we are showing that North America is sitting 4.6% ahead in pace for the foreseeable future. Despite a 7.2 % dip in new Booking Velocity, overall Velocity remains positive. This slowdown in Velocity can be seen across almost all future years, aside from 2020 which remained flat and 2024 where we saw an increase in velocity.
Check out the results in this month’s Pace Navigator!
|On the Books (OTB) Pace:
This metric measures the change in definite room nights on the books, as of March 31, 2019, compared to what was on the books the same time last year (STLY), or March 31, 2018. Our data shows that we have 4.6% more room nights on the books compared to this time in 2018. The graph above shows the OTB Pace change versus the same time last year, for each year in the future booking horizon.
|New Bookings Velocity:
This metric measures the change in room nights from newly signed bookings over the last three months, in this case, January – March, compared to room nights booked over the same time last year (STLY). Across all future dates, the new bookings velocity is down 7.s%% compared to the same 3-month window in 2018. The graph above shows the new bookings velocity change versus the same time last year, for each year in the future booking horizon. For example, the +7.7% new bookings velocity for 2021 compares the total room nights from November 2018 – January 2019 new bookings for 2 years into the future to the total room nights from November 2017 – January 2018 new bookings for 2 years into the future.
Our Take on This Month’s Data:
The overall group demand outlook for North American hotels remains positive, with room nights on the books across all future dates up 4.6% versus this time last year. Demand for 2021 continues to be weaker than other years. which remains consistent with other industry forecasts which are also predicting slow to no growth for that year. That said, business on the books for 2021 is now slightly ahead of the same time last year, which has not always been the case over the last several months. If forecasts for 2021 continue to predict a challenging year, it will be that much more important to layer in as much of the early booking group demand coming from CVBs, in order to de-risk uncertainty around the strength of later booking group and transient demand.
It is also worth noting that this is the second month in a row we are seeing a lower booking velocity (i.e. new room nights added in the last three months) versus the same time last year. While booking velocity can be quite volatile month over month, we have now seen two straight months of softer booking activity. While it is not yet a concerning trend, it certainly has our attention! Let’s see what happens next month.
About the Pace Navigator:
Each month, Knowland collects a significant amount of data on forward-looking group demand across 60+ major North American markets. This data is provided by Convention and Visitor Bureaus (CVBs) that participate in Knowland’s TAP Report. It is unique in providing group room nights booking pace information across the entire multi-year future booking window. This data represents over 30 million annual room nights and represents nearly 50% of the group business conducted by hotels across these markets.